BN’s odds of landslide win in Johor rising, says Kian Ming
The DAP man said BN could end up sweeping 53 of the 56 seats up for grabs on July 11, a whopping 13 more than the 40 it won in the 2022 state polls.
He said Pakatan Harapan (PH) would likely take the remaining three seats while Perikatan Nasional (PN) could be wiped out.
Ong based his projections on the vote share between BN, PH, and PN in the 2022 general election (GE15), where PH won 13 of the 25 parliamentary seats.
“Based on the GE15 results, PH would have won 31 state seats with 43% of the popular vote compared to just 13 state seats (including one won by Muda through a pact with PH) in the 2022 state polls,” he said in a statement.
However, he said Chinese and Indian support for PH was at its peak in GE15, and that this would reduce in the upcoming state election.
Ong said PH appeared to lack a cohesive campaign narrative after a week of campaigning, other than attacking BN’s poster boy, menteri besar Onn Hafiz Ghazi.
He also pointed out that PH had not named a menteri besar candidate, while many senior leaders in the state were not contesting. He said this had left a vacuum in leadership guidance and the shaping of campaign narratives.
“PH is only announcing its manifesto today, while BN unveiled its manifesto the day after nominations.
“There will not be enough time for PH to make the manifesto familiar even among PH’s own candidates, much less the larger electorate in Johor,” he said.
Ong, an adjunct professor at Taylor’s University, added that PN was unlikely to perform well, especially after the breakdown in the relationship between PAS and Bersatu.
The former DAP election strategist also said a dominant victory for BN in Johor would spill over to the Aug 1 state election in Negeri Sembilan.
It could even expedite the dissolution of Parliament later this year to make way for the 16th general election, Ong added.
BN and PH are vying for all 56 seats up for grabs in the Johor assembly, while PN is contesting 33. PAS, which is only contesting 11 seats, has urged its supporters to back BN candidates in seats not contested by PN.
Rafizi Ramli and Nik Nazmi Nik Ahmad’s Parti Bersama Malaysia is contesting 15 seats, which Ong said could affect PH’s vote share, while Muda is vying for four.
In the 2022 state election, BN won 40 seats, followed by PH (12), PN (three), and Muda (one).
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